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Tobin Smith

Changewave investing

At its core lie identifying high-growth potential stocks via business analysis over financials, rapid expansion in changing industries, and wisdom of crowds. First, screen for innovators with strong positioning. Second, validate the magnitude of market change underway. Third, evaluate product adoption and loyalty. Fourth, assess the caliber of leadership. Fifth, model total addressable market size. Sixth, project market share evolution. Seventh, estimate sales growth and margins. Finally, calculate potential stock price appreciation.

Changewave investing
Changewave investing

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An economic transformation is underway, heralding a new era of wealth creation. Historically, the transition between economic models has opened doors to immense fortunes, and today's shift to the New Economy is no exception. This revolution is driven by knowledge and information technology, contrasting with the past reliance on physical assets like factories. The New Economy prizes intangible assets such as ideas, data, and intellectual property, with digital technology enabling global, real-time leverage of knowledge. This facilitates a virtuous cycle where enhanced customer productivity and demand lead to continuous product improvement, boosting sales and adoption. In the near future, New Economy industries are expected to outperform Old Economy sectors in revenue and market capitalization. The business world is now categorized into Old Economy "Defenders" with tangible assets, New Economy "Attackers" thriving on intangible assets, and "Arms Merchants" supplying essential technologies to both. While Attackers have high growth potential, Arms Merchants often excel by serving both sides. The ChangeWave Investing strategy seeks to exploit New Economy opportunities early on. It applies value investing principles to the analysis of intangible assets, aiming to identify key "arms merchants" before they are recognized by institutional investors, potentially mirroring the 1000 percent stock increases seen in the 1990s. ChangeWave employs an open-source platform where professionals collaborate to spot stocks at the cusp of significant growth. This collective intelligence aims to uncover overlooked investment opportunities. Preliminary results are promising, with identified growth investments yielding over 2,500 percent returns in 48 months, averaging more than 150 percent annually. As the expert network expands, the performance is expected to improve. In 1999, the New Economy accounted for 20 percent of US GDP and 50 percent of profits, with projections indicating it could represent 50 percent of the economy and 80 percent of profits by 2008. ChangeWave's goal is to focus on sectors growing by 100-200 percent annually, surpassing the growth of the Old Economy.

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