While it is inevitable there will be many surprises in the future, the driving forces that will actually shape these surprises can be studied now. By understanding these driving forces, you not only increase your ability to respond to whatever changes ultimately eventuate but you also pick up on the emerging commercial opportunities you could otherwise miss. Thus, to better prepare for the future, understand the critical factors which will shape the commercial environment of the future. In particular, there are seven inevitable surprises that will play out over the next 25 years. Since all of these surprises can be anticipated now, even if all of their flow-on effects are not yet clear, it makes good sense to start preparing for these future realities earlier rather than later.
Over the next three decades, older adults will become much more integrated into mainstream society instead of being isolated or forced into retirement. As people live longer and stay healthier into their 80s and 90s, far more seniors will lead active and productive lives. Businesses will need to adjust offerings for this demographic shift. This trend results from three key developments: First, average human life expectancy continues rising, just as it has increased from 60 in 1950 to about 77 in 2003. Medical advances now enable people to live 5-10% longer than previous generations. Within 30 years or so, average life expectancy will approach 120 years as diseases that drain vitality in seniors (like cancer, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, cerebral palsy and heart disease) become treatable through human genome mapping and other progress. Second, older adults' health is dramatically improving as nanotechnology, biogenics and pharmacological research accelerates. Several anti-aging medicines have been unexpectedly found during clinical trials in various fields, and more breakthroughs will likely come at an quickening pace. It may also become feasible for machine implants and other advances to effectively provide long-term treatment for many age-related conditions soon. As a result, few people will feel the need to retire at 60, and many will productively work another 20 or 30 years beyond that point. Third, the economics of aging faces pressure as vigorous seniors can positively contribute to society as mentors or direct participants. Since many seniors have pensions or retirement plans covering living costs, they are driven less by generating income and more by a need to contribute. Consequently, the concept of “retirement” itself is being actively debated in many countries. The notion of a set retirement age – which made sense when manual laborers were physically exhausted after a career – loses credibility. Governments will endorse eliminating or raising mandatory retirement ages because of fiscal pressures to fund pensions. Seniors themselves will also fight mandated retirement. These combined pressures will push back the commonly accepted retirement age worldwide. Concurrently with rising average life expectancy, average birth rates are falling in many countries as women begin having children later, naturally resulting in fewer babies born. A smaller youth population in turn leads to reduced youth dominance in setting societal agendas compared to the past. This shift in youth’s cultural dominance will have other natural effects: • Whereas employers once hesitated to hire seniors, they will now actively recruit older workers needing less training, having higher productivity and exercising better customer judgment. • Many knowledge workers will embark on new careers at 50 or older, bringing cross-disciplinary skills and experience that provides energy and perspective. • More seniors will supplement retirement income through entrepreneurship, sparking small business enthusiasm. • More seniors will manage their own healthcare, choosing quality of life in hospices over life-extending hospital heroics. • Today’s septuagenarians and octogenarians will bequeath $10 trillion to their children, greatly increasing philanthropy and early-stage “angel” investing. • Senior-focused businesses will boom across sectors from high-end travel to medically assisted living construction to age 50+ targeted products. • Employing more older workers will drive productivity gains for countries that encourage it. In much of the developed world, population aging is a familiar story. Absolute senior numbers keep rising, even more significantly as a proportion of total population. Over 25 years, businesses catering to this market have grown, from retirement communities to private healthcare to travel. Through gifts, trusts and bequests, seniors provide capital and philanthropy. Yet despite this, people over 65 remain largely separate from mainstream society. Most still view seniors as having left the workforce to live differently with distinct priorities. This isolation from wider culture will dramatically change over the next three decades as seniors integrate more fully than since World War II. This shift has quietly begun already, likely affecting everyone’s daily life.
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