book.chapter Understanding exponential technologies

Exponential technologies are characterized by their non-linear growth pattern, doubling repeatedly over time. This concept can be challenging for humans to grasp, as the initial stages of exponential growth can appear insignificant. However, with the advent of computers, sensors, and communication technology, we are now immersed in an exponential world, teeming with opportunities set to burgeon in the next three to five years. To illustrate the difference between linear and exponential growth, consider this: 30 linear steps from a starting point will take you approximately 30 meters or 90 feet away. However, 30 exponential steps from the same point will land you about one billion meters away, equivalent to orbiting the Earth 26 times. This dramatic difference underscores the awe-inspiring potential of exponential growth. A prime example of this is Moore's Law, proposed by Intel founder Gordon Moore in 1965, which posits that the number of integrated circuits on a transistor doubles every twelve to twenty-four months. This law has held true for the past sixty years and is the reason why today's smartphones are about a thousand times faster and a million times cheaper than a supercomputer from the 1970s. To avoid underestimating the power of exponential growth, it's helpful to consider the framework known as "The Six Ds of Exponentials." This framework is exemplified by the rise and fall of digital cameras. In 1996, Kodak, a film company with 140,000 employees and a market capitalization of $28 billion, was a dominant player in the photography industry. However, the advent of digital cameras in 1976 marked the beginning of a technological shift. Although these cameras initially lacked sufficient resolution to be useful, they eventually surpassed the two million pixel barrier, leading to a decline in film purchases and Kodak's subsequent bankruptcy in 2012. The advent of smartphones, equipped with high-quality multi-megapixel cameras, further disrupted the market for digital cameras. Today, photos can be shared freely on various online platforms using nothing more than a smartphone. While Kodak's story illustrates the disruptive potential of exponential technologies, other companies, such as Instagram, have harnessed this power to their advantage. Instagram, a photo-sharing platform launched in October 2010, was acquired by Facebook for $1 billion in April 2012, just eighteen months after its inception and with only thirteen employees. This rapid success story underscores the transformative potential of exponential platforms and organizations.