Despite its significant impact, the Internet Wave has only influenced about 5% of the global economy, primarily affecting those between 20 to 45 years old who use computers. In contrast, the emerging Mobile Wave is expected to revolutionize the economy on a much larger scale. Within a decade, it's anticipated that 5 billion smartphones and tablets will be connected, affecting individuals from 6 to 75 years old and ensuring constant connectivity. This shift could transform up to 50% of the global economy, marking the most substantial technological evolution in history. Developing countries, in particular, are advancing rapidly with mobile technology, which could drastically change the global economic landscape by providing affordable access to education and vital information, potentially reshaping 50% of the world's GDP through mobile and social networks.
The Mobile Wave is a phenomenon that is rapidly gaining momentum, and it is situated at the crossroads of two significant and interrelated trends. The first trend is the evolution of computers, which are currently in their fifth generation of development and are transitioning to mobile platforms. The second trend is the maturation of social networks, which have reached a critical mass and are reshaping consumer behavior. Computers have undergone several transformative waves since the 1960s, each building upon the last and having a progressively greater impact on society. The mainframe era allowed large businesses to automate their bookkeeping, while the minicomputer era enabled companies of various sizes to automate business processes cost-effectively. The desktop computer era, which began in 1975 and was epitomized by the IBM personal computer, automated office work. The Internet PC era connected most of the 1.2 billion personal computers to the internet, becoming central to modern society. With the launch of the Apple iPhone in January 2007, the Mobile Internet era began, characterized by rapid growth due to several factors: smartphones are simpler and more affordable than computers, have good battery life thanks to lithium-ion technology, use cheap and robust flash memory, benefit from mature touch screen technology, are instant-on and always ready to use, offer a vast range of apps, and are location-aware. The rise of social networks has led to new norms of consumer behavior. Facebook, the busiest website on earth, has become a social universe, fostering new social behaviors. People use social networks as personal broadcast systems, coordinating social activities and creating instant events. They also use their networks to filter news, with dynamically assembled personalized news streams becoming more important than traditional media. Organizations can interact with consumers more directly, as customer preferences are captured in profiles, allowing for targeted marketing through Facebook-friendly applications. Mobile technology's 24/7 accessibility and the wide range and low cost of mobile applications are unmatched by any other computing technology. The economic incentive for developers is clear: a $1 app could potentially be used by five billion people. This new mobile computing platform will lead to two fundamental changes in business: companies will replace physical products and services with software equivalents, and they will extend their business processes to the software on consumers' mobile devices. The transition to mobile computing will see many companies replacing physical products with software versions. For example, instead of purchasing a $16 CD, people now buy individual music tracks for $0.99 and store them on their devices. Sectors such as publishing, travel, news, advertising, and credit cards have all transitioned to software. Start-ups can quickly emerge with new business models without the need for expensive production facilities. Additionally, mobile computing will compel consumer-facing companies to establish direct application links with their customers, eliminating middlemen and enabling more intimate and personalized service. The era of one-to-one marketing is upon us, and the most useful app in any industry will capture the largest consumer base. This is a golden era for imaginative software engineers in their twenties, as first movers in consumer app usage, particularly in social networking and viral references, will hold a disproportionate share of the market. In the 1990s, companies scrambled for the best Internet domain names; today, success hinges on having app icons on the first two pages of people's phone screens. Mobile technology is also changing the nature of software, transforming it from a solid form sold in a box to a vapor form downloaded from the cloud. Instead of discrete packages on a desktop, software will be omnipresent, accessed on demand from the cloud. Mobile Internet will create new versions of everyday products, new delivery mechanisms, new partnerships, new customer relationships, and new economic paradigms. Companies that provide physical products and services must not attempt to recreate those products in cyberspace but rather reimagine them entirely. Mobile computing, with its universal platform, will propel the Information Revolution to a dramatic new level, much like electricity accelerated the Industrial Revolution. Mobile computing is the tipping point technology that will surpass the limitations of traditional computing. In conclusion, mobile computing technology will cause software to replace physical objects and services, providing a universal computing platform to the majority of humankind. It will spur the creation of countless new applications that are not possible without a universal networked computer carried on one's person 24 hours a day. This capability will disrupt long-standing behaviors and institutions, affecting consumers, businesses, governments, and the global economy.
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