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John Naisbitt

Megatrends

The world is currently transitioning from an industrial to an information era, yet society's overall mindset has not fully caught up with these changes. This lag is understandable given the rapid pace of change, propelled by advancements in communication technology. This shift brings forth new challenges and opportunities for businesses. Those that can navigate these changes stand to succeed, while those that cannot may face dwindling markets and diminishing returns. We are witnessing the birth of a new era and have the opportunity to contribute to its development.

Megatrends
Megatrends

book.chapter Industrial to information age

The shift from an industrial to an information society is a transformation that has already taken place, with the remaining challenge being the alignment of societal perceptions with this new reality. In the past, a significant portion of the population was engaged in agriculture, but technological advancements have drastically reduced the need for such a workforce, with less than 3% now producing more than the required food. Conversely, there has been a surge in information-related jobs, now comprising over 65% of the workforce and growing. Technology has been a catalyst for this transition, with innovations like satellites enabling a global information economy. Unlike the industrial society where capital was the key resource, information now holds that title. This shift means that industries sensitive to information can thrive with minimal capital investment. The production of knowledge has become the driving force of the economy, yet society is still adjusting to this rapid change, which took place over a mere two decades, compared to the century it took to transition from an agricultural to an industrial society. Information is unique as a resource because it is renewable, self-generating, and can be amplified through synergy. We are on the cusp of a communication revolution that will integrate telephones, computers, and televisions into a comprehensive system, facilitating two-way global interactions. The abundance of information available today shifts the focus from supply to the curation of relevant content, with a rise in services that help locate information. The adoption of new technology typically follows three stages: initial application in non-threatening areas, integration into existing products, and finally, the creation of previously impossible inventions. To navigate the information society, a workforce skilled in technology is crucial. Education must pivot towards teaching basic literacy skills necessary for computer use, favoring adaptable generalists over rigid specialists. Manufacturing remains vital in the information society, but the emphasis is on intellectual functions rather than physical production. Information has become an economic commodity, valued based on what people are willing to pay. The economy may seem less tangible than one built on steel and automobiles, but as long as there is a willingness to pay for information, its value is affirmed. The computer, much like the automobile in the 1930s, is reorganizing society. However, instead of merely providing transportation, it expands cognitive capabilities, fostering growth, education, and learning. The computer age is concerned with conceptual space connected electronically, contrasting with the physical space of the motorcar era. As Peter Drucker noted, knowledge has become the primary industry, supplying the economy with the essential resources for production, competitive strength, and economic success.

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