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John Naisbitt

Global paradox

The global paradox suggests that as the world economy grows, the smallest elements, including individuals, gain increasing significance. This concept is reflected in evolving political and business norms that are increasingly influenced by local practices. The communications revolution has led to a surge in tourism, now the world's largest industry. A country's economic viability is directly tied to how well it enables its smaller components to contribute to the overall economy. Leadership in the future will be defined by its ability to foster entrepreneurship. Given the current state of the world, there are more opportunities now than ever before in history.

Global paradox
Global paradox

book.chapter Universal contradiction

As the global economy expands, the influence of smaller countries is growing. Historically, the Group of Seven (G7) nations—comprising the U.S., Japan, Italy, Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany—controlled the most significant economic assets, largely due to the geopolitical dynamics of the Cold War era. The collapse of the Soviet Union and technological advancements have shifted this dynamic, leading to the emergence of smaller, politically independent nations that form strategic economic alliances. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future. In the business world, a similar pattern is emerging. Large corporations are restructuring into networks of entrepreneurial units that operate autonomously yet remain interconnected. Currently, Fortune 500 companies contribute to only 10% of the U.S. economy, with the remaining 90% driven by small and medium-sized enterprises. Notably, companies with fewer than 19 employees are responsible for over half of all U.S. exports, while those with more than 500 employees account for just 7%. As economic integration favors smaller units, their relative importance increases. Small businesses now have access to opportunities once exclusive to major corporations, and as the world economy grows, these smaller entities are poised to dominate. They leverage their advantages by forming strategic partnerships, which can provide small, agile operators with significant benefits over larger companies. Several factors are fueling the growth of small businesses: The elimination of trade barriers enables small companies to compete globally. Advances in computing and telecommunications have significantly leveled the playing field. Financial market deregulation has improved access to capital for small and medium-sized businesses. Converging consumer tastes, influenced by television, are creating demand for more diverse products and opening niche markets worldwide. Small companies can achieve quality standards comparable to those of larger firms. The allure of working for large bureaucracies is diminishing, leading skilled individuals to start their own ventures. Amidst the push towards globalization, a counter-trend of tribalism is gaining importance, with people increasingly valuing their heritage while the business landscape becomes more uniform globally. The United Nations, which started with 51 member countries in 1945, had expanded to 186 by 1993. There is a movement towards breaking down large, artificial national boundaries into smaller, tribal groups. The ease of managing a country with modern technology suggests that more countries will emerge in the future (e.g., Russia could potentially form 67 autonomous republics or countries). Democracy is also becoming more direct, with technology enabling individuals to express their opinions on issues without the need for representatives. The future may see a network-like structure for countries, where individuals are connected, have equal access to information, and can participate directly in governance. The Internet, which began in the late 1970s and is expected to connect approximately 1.5 billion people by 2001, exemplifies this networked approach. It is a network of networks, currently comprising 11,000 networks, and it presents the possibility of forming countries based on shared online association rather than traditional geographic or political ties. This concept challenges traditional notions of nationhood and offers a wide array of choices for the future.

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