book.chapter Understanding collective intelligence

Collective intelligence is a concept that suggests the collective decision-making of a group can lead to outcomes that surpass what any individual could achieve alone, regardless of their expertise. This idea is based on the notion that when individuals contribute small but diverse pieces of information, the aggregation of these insights can tackle a problem effectively, resulting in a solution that embodies the group's collective wisdom. This approach contrasts with the traditional reliance on experts, where decisions are made based on the knowledge and track record of a single person. Collective intelligence, on the other hand, values the aggregated wisdom of a group over the opinion of any one expert. It is predicated on the belief that gathering responses from a wide array of people regarding a question or problem often leads to an answer that is at least as accurate as that provided by the most knowledgeable individual in the group. In many instances, the collective decision-making process leads to outstanding results, which is contrary to the mediocrity that is typically associated with averages. James Surowiecki explored this concept and found that under certain conditions, groups can exhibit a surprising level of intelligence, often surpassing the capabilities of the smartest individuals within them. He argued that the intelligence of a group does not necessarily rely on having exceptionally intelligent individuals. Rather, a wise decision can emerge from a group where most members may not be particularly knowledgeable or rational. The tragic space shuttle Challenger disaster is a poignant example of collective intelligence at work. On January 28, 1986, the Challenger disintegrated shortly after takeoff, and the stock market responded swiftly. Investors sold off shares of the four main contractors involved in the shuttle's construction. Within 30 minutes of the explosion, the stock prices of Lockheed, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell International had fallen significantly. Morton Thiokol's stock, however, was halted due to the sheer volume of sell orders, and by the day's end, its stock had dropped by 12 percent. This immediate reaction of the market effectively identified Morton Thiokol as the primary party responsible for the disaster, a fact that would be officially confirmed six months later by a Presidential Commission. The commission determined that the failure of the O-ring seals on the booster rockets, which were manufactured by Thiokol, caused the catastrophe. The stock market, without any clear insider information or logical explanation, had collectively and accurately predicted the outcome of the official investigation. Another instance where collective intelligence was demonstrated is in the search for the USS Scorpion. When the submarine disappeared in May 1968, the navy assembled a diverse team to locate it, including mathematicians, salvage experts, and submarine specialists. Each member of the team provided an estimate of the submarine's final location. By applying Bayes theorem, which revises the probability of an event based on new information, the group formulated a collective judgment. The predicted location was not one that any individual had specifically identified, but rather a collective estimate. In a remarkable turn of events, the submarine was found just 220 yards from the group's predicted location, five months after it went missing. These case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of collective intelligence in synthesizing varied inputs into precise predictions and solutions. They highlight the superiority of collective decision-making over individual expertise and emphasize the importance of incorporating a wide range of perspectives when solving problems.