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Cover of 'The warren buffett stock portfolio'

The warren buffett stock portfolio

Mary Buffett, David Clark

Stock selection insights: timing & reasons

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Description

Warren Buffett, recognized as the most successful investor globally, has effectively answered two critical questions for stock market success. He has identified at least 17 stocks for Berkshire Hathaway that meet his first criterion. To excel in stock market investing, focusing on the second question is key.

In the midst of what's termed the Great Recession's fifth year, remarkable businesses with strong long-term prospects are available at attractive valuations. These opportunities are not for quick gains but for substantial long-term growth, with potential annual returns between 8% and 12%.

Table of contents

01

Section 1 – overview of buffett's investment principles

Grasping warren buffett's investment approach is straightforward; the challenge lies in its execution, diverging from the norm for most investors. Over time, buffett's strategy has developed, fundamentally encompassing five critical components, making its application the real test.

Maintain liquidity amidst scarcity

Despite the trepidation surrounding california's real estate market in 1990, which mirrored the crisis in new england and led to a nearly 50% drop in wells fargo's stock within months, we saw an opportunity. Our prior investments in the company at higher prices didn't deter us; instead, the plummeting prices were a welcome chance to increase our holdings significantly. This perspective is one that all investors who anticipate being consistent purchasers over their lifetimes should share. Rather than rejoicing when stock prices climb and lamenting when they fall, a more logical approach is to embrace market volatility as an opportunity.

Warren buffett has consistently advocated for buying stocks when they are out of favor. The prolonged recession has resulted in stock prices being slashed to levels unseen since the early 1980s. For instance, coca-cola was trading at 16 times earnings in 2011, a stark contrast to its 47 times earnings valuation in 1999. Similarly, wal-mart's p/e ratio stood at 12 at the end of 2011, down from 38 in 2001. Procter & gamble's p/e ratio also decreased to 16 at the end of 2011 from 29 in 2000. This pricing environment allows investors with liquidity to select from the best investment opportunities available. Buffett is familiar with this pattern, often selling when the market is high and then holding onto cash for years, waiting for the next downturn.

He strategically invests in companies with strong economic fundamentals and a lasting competitive edge. Buffett began his career as a staunch value investor, seeking undervalued stocks. However, this often meant investing in lesser companies, leading him to liquidate his portfolio in 1969 and wait out the market frenzy. He re-entered the market during the crash of 1973-1974, focusing on top-tier companies with sustainable competitive advantages. In 2007, sensing an overheated market, he again accumulated cash within berkshire. The 2008 crash found berkshire with $37 billion in cash, enabling buffett to acquire significant stakes in premier american companies at deeply discounted prices. Buffett's strategy of buying during bear markets, industry downturns, or when exceptional events impact strong companies has yielded substantial returns for berkshire hathaway.

The strategy is straightforward: accumulate cash, identify companies with enduring competitive advantages, purchase them in a down market, and hold for the long term. While this may seem simple, most investors are conditioned to buy during bull markets, leaving them without the necessary cash reserves when a bear market emerges. Consequently, they not only lose money but also miss out on the opportunity to capitalize on favorable prices.

Choose stocks with proven histories

Warren buffett's investment philosophy is deeply rooted in the principle of predictability. He seeks out companies whose future he can foresee with a reasonable degree of certainty. For instance, consider the enduring appeal of wrigley's chewing gum; it's unlikely that technological advancements will alter the fundamental habit of chewing gum. Buffett's assertion that "predictable products equal predictable profits" encapsulates his approach.

Buffett's portfolio predominantly consists of venerable firms offering familiar products and services, a deliberate choice reflecting his investment strategy. The longevity and renown of a product or service enable an investor to discern whether a company possesses a lasting competitive edge. A firm that has thrived for over half a century is likely doing something commendable.

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02

Section 2 – the buffett investment collection

Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes investments in a selection of seventeen companies that align with Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. These companies are considered suitable for investment by smaller investors who are looking for guidance on what to invest in. The remaining question for these investors is not what to buy, but when to buy. Observing Warren Buffett's actions can provide insights into the timing of investments.

A detailed analysis of each company in the style of Warren Buffett can reveal the reasons behind his investment choices. Such an analysis can help understand why Buffett may choose to increase his holdings in certain companies, even when market fluctuations cause a temporary dip in their stock prices. This approach is characteristic of a long-term investor, who is less concerned with short-term price increases and more focused on the enduring value of the stocks.

The companies in which Berkshire Hathaway has invested include notable names such as American Express Company, The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon), Coca-Cola Company, ConocoPhillips, Costco Wholesale Corporation, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft Foods, Inc., Moody’s Corporation, Procter & Gamble Company, Sanofi S.A., Torchmark Corporation, Union Pacific Corporation, U.S. Bancorp, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Washington Post Company, and Wells Fargo & Company.

For instance, when analyzing American Express as an investment, one would consider its current earnings, the growth over the past decade, and the annual compound growth rate. These factors contribute to projections of future earnings and, consequently, the potential future share price. By adding in the dividends expected over the next ten years, an investor can calculate the total potential gain from the investment.

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