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Cover of 'Future consumer dot com'

Future consumer dot com

Frank Feather

The digital shopping revolution through 2010

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Description

The Internet revolution, or "Webolution", is shifting the shopping experience from physical stores to the comfort of consumers' homes or any location of their preference.

This shift is set to transform both commercial and personal lifestyles, essentially reversing the requirements of the industrial revolution. As e-commerce evolves into m-commerce (mobile commerce), the majority of shopping will move online to improve life quality.

Table of contents

01

Market dimensions

The Webolution is fundamentally transforming life, society, and the economy globally. This transformation is characterized by three key trends: Firstly, an increasing number of people are embracing a Web lifestyle. This lifestyle signifies the integration of the Internet into every aspect of a person's life, including learning, working, shopping, entertainment, and staying informed. The Web lifestyle is essentially a revival of the family-centric societal structure that existed prior to the industrial era, as it enables people to be productive from their homes, thereby eliminating the need for commuting or working in an office. Individuals living a Web lifestyle will inhabit digital homes equipped with digital appliances and will travel in vehicles with Internet access. They will also carry portable devices with Internet connectivity when away from home. In essence, for a Web lifestyle, the Internet becomes an omnipresent "dial tone" of life. By 2010, it is projected that half of North America's population will be living a Web lifestyle.

Secondly, consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with the idea of shopping anywhere, anytime, and in any way they prefer. While everyone needs to shop at some point, the experience of shopping at physical stores can be inconvenient, time-consuming, and inefficient. Consequently, consumers have quickly recognized the advantages of online shopping. However, until now, this shopping has been limited to the use of purchase. With the imminent launch of next-generation portable devices, online shopping is expected to experience an accelerated rate of adoption. Mobile access to the Internet could potentially reinvent the Internet experience. As WebPhones replace PCs as the preferred access device, new uses for the Internet become feasible. Mobile commerce could potentially be the next major application of the Internet. Once consumers experience the benefits of wireless Web access, they are unlikely to revert to using PCs.

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02

Population char­ac­ter­is­tics

As the Internet population increasingly reflects the broader demographic patterns of society, it is expected that everyone will eventually engage in online shopping. The trend suggests that online shoppers will frequent their favorite websites rather than exploring the vast expanse of the Internet. From a demographic standpoint, there are five generations with distinct inclinations towards online shopping:

The "By-the-book" generation, born between 1911 and 1928, represents 6% of the market. Very few from this group are online, and it's probable that most will never be. The "By-the-clock" generation, born between 1929 and 1945, accounts for 16% of the market. These seniors are generally conservative and risk-averse, and they are unlikely to shop online until the Internet becomes more user-friendly or there are more compelling reasons to do so. The "baby boomers," born between 1946 and 1964, make up 30% of the market. They have quickly and significantly adapted to the Internet, using it to independently research information rather than relying on vendor sales pitches.

"Generation X," born between 1965 and 1982, comprises 20% of the market. They were integral to the PC revolution and find going online to be a natural and effortless part of life. They are known to collectively avoid websites that do not resonate with youth values. The Web generation, born between 1983 and 2000, represents 28% of the market. Having grown up with PCs and the Internet, they find using the Web to be second nature and are eager to adopt new technologies. Psychographic factors also play a significant role in the growth of online shopping. Online shoppers are attracted by the convenience of fast navigation, anytime access, quick checkout, prompt delivery, and available customer service. The "Millennium Effect" is another driver, with people more willing to try new things as they enter the new millennium. Excellent online customer service and the ability to avoid minimum-wage shop assistants are appealing, as are website features that offer customization and personalization. Additionally, "Webographic" factors influence online shopping growth:

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03

Principal Industries

What is the projected shift of the current economy to the digital marketplace in the coming decade?

Historical data shows that the worldwide retail economy was valued at $4 trillion in 1999, with North America contributing $2.4 trillion. In the same year, online sales accounted for less than 1% at $20 billion.

FutureConsumer.Com predicts the following for e-commerce sales: by 2000, 3% of all retail sales will be conducted online; by 2005, this figure will rise to 14%; and by 2010, it will reach 31%. This means that by 2010, North American retail sales will increase to $3.5 trillion, with $1.1 trillion of these sales happening online.

In the early days of the internet business era, a lot of focus was placed on identifying which products could be effectively sold online. Analysts categorized items into four groups: convenience items like books and music; replenishment items such as food and cleaning supplies; researched items like life insurance and consumer electronics; and subjective items like home supplies, furniture, and houses. However, these classifications have become obsolete as products from all categories are now being sold successfully online. With the future expansion of bandwidth restrictions and the introduction of improved systems, the online shopping experience will become even more appealing for every conceivable product.

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04

Digital Marketing Tactics

In the period leading up to 2010, a firm's internet strategy was crucial to its overall business model. The growth of e-commerce was so significant that CEOs had to personally oversee this aspect of their business to avoid becoming irrelevant. Forward-thinking companies reassessed their operations from the viewpoint of web-savvy consumers who interacted with products and services differently than traditional customers.

The first strategy was to embrace the internet or risk extinction. Retailers who dismissed it as a passing trend were unlikely to survive. All retail was predicted to move online, with only immediate-need items being purchased in physical stores. This shift had several strategic implications: Mass customization would become ubiquitous, enabling consumers to tailor almost everything they purchased to their specific needs and preferences.

Consumers would gain more bargaining power and drive all retail transactions. Traditional retailers who delayed their online transition for fear of cannibalizing their own sales would find themselves out of business. Retailers who formed partnerships to create hybrid brick-and-click businesses would thrive. This could involve transforming physical stores into showrooms that also served as product pickup and return centers.

E-marketing, being much more cost-effective than traditional marketing, would become impossible to ignore due to its competitive advantages. The lower customer acquisition costs of the internet would lead to long-term pricing advantages, especially since online consumers could easily and thoroughly compare prices. Shopping malls would need to reposition themselves as destinations for shopping experiences and entertainment to compete with the benefits of online shopping.

In summary, the competitive advantages of e-commerce were numerous and attractive: lower costs, product customization, quick time-to-market, zero inventory, international market reach, targeted promotions, and immediate transaction completion. However, the skills needed to successfully establish an online retailer differed from those that traditional retailers had developed. A successful online business required new merchandising, technology, and customer service skills. Unless retailers began to effectively use the internet, the evolution of shopping on the web could trigger a devastating shakeup in the retail industry. Only companies that acquired the necessary new skills would survive. Mergers, buyouts, and the complete disappearance of many established retailers seemed likely unless retailers began to embrace the internet and learn how to make it work for them rather than against them.

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