Abundance

Understanding the sheer magnitude of exponential technologies' impact is a challenge for the human mind. The primary catalyst for this explosive growth is the concurrent exponential advancement of various technologies, each with the potential to radically transform the world, especially when considering their combined effects. In 1990, the Human Genome Project was initiated by the US Department of Energy and the National Institutes of Health, with projections indicating it would take fifteen years and over $10 billion to sequence the human genome. A decade into the project, Craig Venter entered the race with his company, Celera, and managed to sequence the human genome in less than a year for just under $100 million, while the government project's cost escalated to $1.5 billion. This instance exemplifies how difficult it is to predict the speed of significant advancements when exponential growth, similar to the surge in raw computing power, takes place.

The realm of computing power is not the only one witnessing exponential growth. Other areas experiencing similar surges include bioengineering, which is currently exploring algae-based fuels as a low-cost, environmentally friendly alternative to petroleum. This field has also led to the development of food crops that are fifty times more productive, vaccines producible within twenty-four hours instead of months, and other enhancements of natural processes. The domain of networks and sensors is evolving as well, with the Internet having created a global data field. The near future will see trillions of devices connected, enabling unprecedented precision in matching production with demand and operating devices in energy-efficient ways that promise significant savings and industry reinvention.

Exponential technologies are on the cusp of making significant strides in the provision of fundamental resources such as food, water, and shelter, thereby laying the groundwork for the abundance pyramid. Their impact is set to be amplified by the convergence of three key forces over the coming decades: grassroots innovators, tech-savvy philanthropists like Bill Gates, and the burgeoning billion consumers. This collaboration mirrors the cooperative nature inherent in biological systems, where distinct entities come together to achieve a shared objective. A growing positive feedback loop is starting to address the global resource challenge, with insightful individuals leveraging modern transportation and information technology to understand and tackle global problems.

Once the basic needs of water, food, and shelter are met for everyone, further progress is determined and propelled by their access to energy, education, and healthcare. For abundance to be sustainable, it must be all-encompassing. Once individuals have these resources, they begin to work towards expanding their personal liberties. Freedom is the direct recipient of progress. The world of abundance will require a significant amount of energy, freely accessible education for individuals to build their wealth, and universally accessible healthcare. Once this middle layer of the pyramid is addressed, individuals will desire the freedom to chase their dreams. Major advancements are on the horizon in all these areas:

Energy – The lack of legacy infrastructure of centralized power plants in the developing world could turn out to be a hidden advantage. This will enable them to bypass the large-scale coal and petroleum power plants of the industrialized nations and directly adopt decentralized, renewable-power generation systems. Many of these countries have vast deserts ideal for solar power generation and the cost of photovoltaic cells (which convert sunlight to electricity) is consistently decreasing while efficiency is increasing. Wind power technology is also improving and is currently nearing the cost of coal-generated electricity. Synthetic fuels are nearing mass market availability and battery technology for the storage of baseload electricity is also making significant strides. A company named TerraPower is developing self-contained small-scale nuclear reactors which are sealed plug-in units large enough to power entire cities. All these energy sources can be supplemented by intelligent power grids which will be significantly more efficient than the power distribution systems currently existing in developed nations. It’s not unrealistic to predict that as all these different technologies gain widespread application, the world could literally be flooded with cheap, abundant, and environmentally friendly energy within the next decade. This has the potential to drive economic growth rates worldwide through the roof as the cost of energy is a major input into many value chains at the current time. If prices continue to fall at their current rate and capacity continues to grow at its current rate, 100 percent of the world’s energy needs will be met by solar power alone in eighteen years. When all of the other energy advances are added in, that ideal of making affordable energy available to all becomes achievable much, much sooner.

Education – The long-term benefits of more education are obvious. What’s changing, however, is the traditional model of a fixed educational system is becoming obsolete. In its place are initiatives like One Laptop Per Child – which as its name suggests is attempting to provide every child on the planet with a rugged, low-cost, low-power laptop which is connected to the Internet. The initial goal was to make this available at a $100 price tag and thus far it has got to roughly $180. Once children have the tools, they can then join self-organized learning environments where they can learn on their own or with tutors using Skype. There is a vast and growing reservoir of educational materials available online in a wide variety of formats including games that teach in an engaging manner. The Khan Academy, for example, has more than 2,200 ten to fifteen minute videos available for free which teach everything from molecular biology to history to quadratic equations. There are already two million students a month who are using this educational resource to learn at their own pace. And not to be left behind, the educational system is evolving to make learning more personalized and more applicable to the needs of future employers. “With the convergence of infinite computing, artificial intelligence, ubiquitous broadband coverage, and low-cost tablets, we can provide a nearly free and personalized education to anyone, anywhere, at any time. This is an incredible force for abundance. Imagine billions of newly invigorated minds, thrilled by the voyage of discovery, using their newly gained knowledge and skills to improve their lives.” – Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler

Incentive competitions have long been recognized as a potent mechanism for spurring progress and innovation. By offering rewards for achieving ambitious goals, these competitions have historically motivated individuals and teams to push the boundaries of what is possible, thereby driving society towards greater abundance. The effectiveness of incentive competitions is well-documented, with numerous instances where they have catalyzed significant advancements across various fields.

One of the most celebrated examples is Charles Lindbergh's transatlantic flight from New York to Paris in 1927. Lindbergh undertook this daring journey to win the $25,000 Ortieg Prize, and his success not only earned him international fame but also laid the groundwork for the development of the commercial aviation industry. This achievement demonstrated how incentive competitions could inspire individuals to accomplish feats that were previously deemed impossible, thereby opening new frontiers for exploration and development.

Similarly, in 1714, the British Parliament offered a substantial prize to anyone who could devise a reliable method for measuring longitude at sea. This challenge was met by John Harrison, a clockmaker, who invented the marine chronometer, a device that revolutionized navigation and greatly enhanced the safety and efficiency of sea travel. This example underscores the ability of incentive competitions to solve longstanding problems by attracting innovative solutions from unexpected quarters.