book.chapter The six orient and organize skills:

Set ambitious, clear future goals. Recognizing your ultimate ambition from the beginning of your venture is essential for making strategic decisions and compromises. It's crucial to have a clear vision of the end goal you're striving for, and then align your choices with that vision. In any situation, you're constrained by various resources – such as time, money, reputation, effort, etc. If you allocate these resources to secondary goals, you might miss the opportunity to achieve what truly matters to you. Therefore, it's important to focus all your efforts on the future you wish to realize. To apply this concept: First, quickly list all your potential goals – every possibility you can think of. At this stage, don't sort or prioritize; just draft a preliminary list. Next, identify your primary goals – sift through your list to determine which one or two goals are absolutely essential. If this is difficult, select your top three or four goals. Then, plan backwards from your primary goals – map out how you will move from where you are now to where you want to be. Accept that your plans may evolve, but eliminate distractions and focus on a single path that seems viable. This approach will clarify your thinking and reduce the feeling of being overwhelmed by options. Identify any "emotion loops" – these are emotional or psychological needs that can drain your resources if not managed carefully. We all have emotional distractions that hinder our productivity. Understanding what drives these distractions can help you plan to mitigate them in the future. Consider the question of being stranded on a desert island and whom you would choose to have with you. Answers vary, including one's spouse, a philosopher, a movie star, or a storyteller. Dean Kamen, the inventor of the Segway, chose the world's best boat builder. This highlights the first skill of Predictive Intelligence: identifying your Big Goals by envisioning the future you want to create and what your life or company must look like to achieve these goals. This step is about basing your decision-making on the future you wish to create, which is equally applicable to personal, career, and business decisions. To bet smart, start by sketching the future you want for yourself or your company. Ensure the goal is worthwhile. When evaluating the allocation of resources, it's essential to steer clear of scenarios where potential losses outweigh possible gains or where the rules are beyond your influence. In such cases, it's prudent to return to the drawing board and create a new opportunity where you can have a say in the outcome. Before committing to any venture, make sure it's in line with your personal principles and values. A well-considered decision requires a balance of potential rewards against risks and an understanding of who is in charge of the rules. Here's a systematic method for assessing new opportunities: Start by outlining all the potential benefits that could come your way if everything goes as planned. This initial step is crucial for grasping the full extent of the opportunity and recognizing any costs of postponing your decision. Next, take into account all the possible losses. Ask yourself what the consequences would be if things don't pan out and whether the potential loss is something you can afford or is too much to risk. Then, gauge the most likely outcome, given that the current rules and the key players enforcing them stay the same. Consider how much trust you have in this prediction. After that, analyze who holds, or could hold, the power over the rules. Anticipate whether any changes on the horizon could work in your favor or against it. Think about how power shifts might impact your potential gains and losses. Finally, consider the possibility of you taking the reins and setting the rules. Evaluate if you have the capability to take control and steer the direction of the game. Individuals and organizations differ in their views on what's an acceptable trade-off between potential gains, possible losses, and control over the rules. This is a subjective decision. The objective is to make choices based on knowledge rather than going in blind. In any endeavor, personal or corporate, you're essentially wagering on what the future holds. Successful individuals or entities aim to allocate their resources where the balance of rewards, risks, and control is most favorable to them, according to their own assessments and preferences. On the flip side, it's advisable to refrain from investing where the risks could overshadow the benefits, or where the rules are, or might become, controlled by others with opposing agendas. In such instances, it's better to pause and rethink your approach, or even come up with a new strategy where you can have more influence on the outcome. If, after careful consideration, you conclude that the optimal scenario is still unattractive, or if you believe you can't gain control over the rules to change the outcomes, then simply weighing the potential benefits might be enough for you to decide that this isn't a game you want to play by your rules. Seek opportunities for major progress. Harnessing the potential for innovation is key. By quickly recognizing and adapting to emerging trends, you position yourself advantageously. This proactive approach, focusing resources on future gains rather than sticking to inflexible plans, can forge your success. Markets evolve rapidly and unpredictably. Swift identification and adaptation to these changes can give you a competitive edge, potentially leading to significant advancements with timely and prudent actions. To pinpoint the right moment for a significant leap, keep a vigilant eye on your environment. Track any data deviations from your expectations as "neon clues," analyzing whether they're mere anomalies or indicators of an emerging trend. Also, pay attention to "fuzzy clues," those not immediately clear but hint at larger shifts when pieced together. Deciding whether these clues signal a time for change or are just noise is crucial. This step requires overcoming the inertia of the status quo and making a deliberate choice. Acting on your decision is the most daunting part. Yet, by being decisive and quick, you can achieve a dominant position before your competitors even realize. This proactive stance can greatly influence your long-term success. It's challenging to acknowledge when our forecasts are off, but recognizing the need for a strategic pivot, despite the discomfort and the limited information and time, is essential. Those with high Predictive Intelligence seize these opportunities, crafting their fortune. In contrast, average bettors cling to the safety of familiar plans, missing out on chances for improvement. Are you ready to leap towards a better path, as suggested by Eileen Shapiro and Howard Stevenson? Their insights highlight the value of Predictive Intelligence in staying agile and seizing opportunities to create your own luck. Comprehend requirements and acquisition methods. Grasping the human element is pivotal when striving to achieve your goals. Recognizing who can aid you and pinpointing the opportune moments for their involvement allows for a tactical approach to assembling the right team at the right time, significantly boosting your capacity to carve out favorable opportunities for yourself. To reach any substantial objective, managing the interpersonal dynamics is essential. Your likelihood of success is heightened by knowing who to involve, the ways to engage them, and the methods to maintain their commitment. Here are some tactics to master this aspect: Begin by envisioning your end goal and then plan in reverse, identifying the necessary individuals and the appropriate times for their engagement. For example, if you aim to take your company public, securing a CEO, a CFO, and an investment relations manager is imperative before any investment bank will consider your proposition. Sketch out a timeline for when key players should come on board. Employ empathy to discern what incentives will entice the people you need. Beyond the opportunity to contribute to something groundbreaking and impactful, these individuals will also look for the essentials of a competitive compensation package. Prepare in advance to make a convincing offer to the right candidates. Sort the people you encounter into three broad categories: core allies who resonate with your values and goals, possibles who may align with your needs depending on the situation, and null-setters who either oppose you or remain apathetic. Focus on cultivating relationships with your core allies, expand the common ground with possibles, and convince null-setters to either disengage or change their stance. Be mindful of any "vapor trails"—previous errors or inconsistencies that might resurface to your detriment. Consider how your past choices might be viewed by those you're trying to attract now and strategize accordingly. Empathy is an invaluable asset for a shrewd strategist. The deeper your insight into the perspectives of those whose support you seek, the more effectively you can craft scenarios that appeal to them. By aligning their interests with yours, you're essentially engineering your own fortune. Understanding someone's worldview empathetically allows you to anticipate their future responses to issues that matter to you. The more accurately you can predict their reactions, the faster and more efficiently you can build a mutual agenda with those you wish to enlist for your cause. Determine the needed extraordinary efforts. Recognizing the balance between personal abilities and the role of chance is key to setting realistic goals. It's important to align your actions with your strategy, rather than relying on luck. This involves assessing where you invest your resources, as these investments reflect your true priorities and the likelihood of achieving your desired outcomes. If there's a logical progression from your current position to your goals, you're on the right track; if not, it's time to rethink your approach. Decide on the most sensible action, which may mean adjusting your goals or investments to create a more feasible path to success. Avoid relying on hope alone. Many people have detailed plans for the start and end of their strategy but lack a middle section, which is unsustainable. Addressing the gap between your skills and your goals early on allows you to either recalibrate your goals or acquire the necessary resources to improve your odds. Eileen Shapiro and Howard Stevenson warn against magical thinking in decision-making, whether in business, career, or personal life. Recognizing and adjusting your decisions to avoid magical thinking can change your destiny by improving your chances of success or reshaping your goals to match your actual investments. They also advise distancing yourself from those who indulge in magical thinking and are resistant to change. Remember, all bets start with intent, and understanding your intentions is crucial to determining whether they help or hinder your progress. Maintain a ready alternative plan. When circumstances change unexpectedly, having a well-thought-out contingency plan allows you to take control and respond effectively, potentially seizing new opportunities or mitigating risks. A reliable Plan B, distinct from your primary strategy, strengthens your ability to shape your destiny. Two main challenges in developing such plans include the "speedboat wakes" phenomenon, where the focus on current execution prevents alternative planning, and the issue of "white elephants," where real problems are ignored for more politically correct issues. Addressing these requires pausing to consider hypothetical scenarios and confronting uncomfortable truths. A viable Plan B not only serves as a fallback but can also enhance your current plan with new ideas and risk management strategies. Investing effort in Plan B generates innovative solutions and prepares you for a sink-or-swim situation, ensuring all resources are dedicated to your primary plan. Recognizing that time is a critical factor, having even a rough Plan B positions you to react swiftly and effectively, embodying the principle of creating your own luck by anticipating and preparing for alternative outcomes.