Flash foresight, defined as an intuitive grasp of future events and their hidden opportunities, is a valuable business skill that can be honed and strengthened. It's akin to solving problems before they occur, based on glimpses of potential future scenarios. The ability to generate flash foresights isn't random, but rather a skill that can be developed and refined. There are seven key triggers to facilitate this: certainty, projection, transformation, problem skipping, going opposite, redefining and reinventing, and directing your future. These triggers function like musical notes, not all are used in every foresight, but many are combinations of a few. Regularly looking into the future and applying these triggers increases the likelihood of generating valuable flash foresights. While they may sometimes be about innovative uses for new technology, more often they come from viewing the future differently and reaching it before others. In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to generate flash foresights has become essential, making it worthwhile to invest time in learning and mastering this skill.
When developing a new business plan or a next-generation product, starting with certainty is not an impossible task. It involves focusing on what can be predicted with confidence about the future. This includes understanding both cyclical changes, such as economic fluctuations or seasonal variations, and linear changes, like the continuous growth of the world's population or the relentless advancement of technology. Hard trends, which are measurable and verifiable trends in your industry or society, are also certain to continue. For example, the increasing accessibility and affordability of internet bandwidth is a hard trend that is unlikely to reverse. On the other hand, soft trends are potential future occurrences that depend on various factors and are not based on solid facts. These can include unpredictable elements such as stock market movements. Recognizing and leveraging these hard and soft trends can open doors to new possibilities and strategies. For instance, the retirement of the baby boomer generation is a hard trend that presents numerous opportunities for innovative business ideas. These could range from immersive video games designed for retirees, to unretirement homes that offer second-life careers, late-life financial planning services, eco-friendly funeral homes, and smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. By basing your strategies on these certainties and the known future visible in hard trends, you can create a business plan or product that not only survives but thrives in the years ahead. This approach allows businesses to navigate the uncertainty of the future with more confidence. By identifying and focusing on hard trends, companies can develop products and services that meet the evolving needs of society. Meanwhile, staying aware of soft trends enables businesses to remain flexible and adapt to changes as they occur. This balanced perspective on the predictable and the uncertain aspects of the future is crucial for any business looking to innovate and grow in the ever-changing global landscape.
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